Thursday, January 5th, 2012

Forecast: Mobile Phone Shipments’ Growth Slows In 2012, But Nokia/Microsoft May Survive

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Analysts at Credit Suisse are forecasting slower growth in mobile phone shipments worldwide for this year, at a growth rate of 2%. The increase is higher than previous forecasts but is down from the 12% growth it had projected for 2011, according to this Reuters report.

According to the firm, they’re expecting to see 1.85 billion handset sales in 2012, up from the 2011 forecast of 1.82 billion. They’re also surprisingly bullish on Nokia’s fate in the new year.

Perhaps the bigger takeaway from the analysts’ projections is how well it expects smartphones to fare in the coming years. By 2015, they are predicting that smartphone sales are on track to reach annual shipments of over 1 billion. The sales of these devices will eventually account for nearly 80% of handset industry revenue.

In somewhat related news, the brokerage also upped Nokia to “outperform,” saying that the handset maker will start to benefit from its transition from Symbian to Windows Phone in the second half of 2012, and will reach a “crossover” point in Q3 when Windows Phone begins to outsell Symbian.

Credit Suisse’s Kulbinder Garcha raised his price target to €6 from €4 on Nokia, saying, “Nokia’s focus on Windows will allow the company to drive a recovery through 2012 in both its top-line and earnings.” He raised his 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates to €0.25 and €0.60 per share, from a prior estimate of €0.24 and €0.40.

Garcha says his firm believes Nokia can command a 13% market share within the Windows Phone ecosystem, given its “sensible and aggressive pricing” and “decent support for Windows ecosystem as confirmed by our recent survey of carriers. (Really?) “And the quality of the Windows platform is quite good,” he added.

OK, the last one he can have – Windows Phone’s quality is good. But the first two are essentially stating that there’s a good chance that Windows Phone can make it as a viable “third ecosystem” after iOS and Android, and that carriers are interested in pursuing that option. This is based on surveys of 27 executives of global telcos who were found to be “widely supportive” of Nokia/Windows Phone.

Hmm. Given this great support from carriers (???), it’s odd that retail employees are reportedly being paid off by Microsoft and Nokia $10-$15 per handset sale to recommend Windows Phone to customers, then, isn’t it?



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Thursday, January 5th, 2012

The Not-So-Crazy Rumors About Microsoft Taking Over Nokia’s Smartphone Division Resurface

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Mobile industry watcher Eldar Murtazin took to Twitter today, claiming that Microsoft and Nokia executives will be meeting each other shortly to discuss the possibility and terms of a deal involving the sale of the Finnish phone maker’s smartphone division (including “one or two” manufacturing plants).

Such an agreement between the two tech giants, which Murtazin says could be finalized in the second half of 2012, would leave Nokia with nothing but its ‘dumbphone’ or feature phone business, mapping services subsidiary Navteq and Nokia Siemens Networks, the flailing networking and telecom equipment company (a joint-venture with Siemens).

Murtazin also asserts that current Nokia head honcho Stephen Elop will resign from his chief executive role in the course of this year (possibly to return to Microsoft, where he used to run the Business Division?). Furthermore, Windows smartphones would no longer be branded ‘Nokia’.

Finally, Murtazin says the decision to make the move is entirely Microsoft’s to make at this point, and that they’re particularly interested in purchasing Nokia’s valuable mobile patent trove.

Let’s back up for a second.

First, we should note that Murtazin has been telling everyone who would listen that this deal was in the works since May 2011, mere months after Microsoft formed an alliance with Nokia to make Windows Phone the primary platform for Nokia-made smartphones.

Nokia vehemently denied that such a sale of its smartphone division to Microsoft was ever on the table, but I’m increasingly leaning towards believing that it was – and that it still very much is.

Murtazin isn’t always right, but his predictions about everything related to Nokia’s business have been pretty spot on in the past, and the man has had some massive scoops, often breaking major news before any official announcements were made, as a result.

We should also note that Murtazin is not the only one whispering about a potential sale of Nokia’s smartphone unit. Such a move would make sense, after all; Nokia certainly hasn’t exactly been heading in the right direction in recent years.

On that note, it’s worth reminding you that Microsoft and Nokia were also rumored (see WSJ report) to make a joint bid for troubled Blackberry maker Research In Motion just two weeks ago.

If Microsoft were to buy out Nokia’s smartphone division, the deal would be reminiscent of Google’s (pending) acquisition of Motorola Mobility, and put the Redmond software giant in a slightly better position to compete with Apple, ‘Googorola’ and other Android handset vendors.

Rumor today, reality later this year? I wouldn’t be too surprised.

Also read: Chart: How Google And Apple Won The Smartphone Wars



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Thursday, January 5th, 2012

Microsoft’s Newest Flight Simulator Goes Freemium

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In the gaming world, there are gamers, there are hardcore gamers… and then there are flight sim players. These guys exist on a plane of dedication that they can claim almost exclusively, with a degree of commitment matched only by their spiritual brothers: the train sim players.

Alas, no level of dedication can pay to keep the lights on if the fan base simply isn’t big enough… hence the layoff of Microsoft’s entire Flight Simulator team back in 2009. Looking to start afresh and bring new blood (and new wallets) into the fan base, Microsoft’s taking a different approach with their latest game, Flight: it’s going freemium.

Microsoft Flight will be free-to-play… as long as you’re only looking to fly over Hawaii’s Big Island. If you’re looking to expand your horizons with new locations (or to fly in any other planes besides what comes included), you’ll need to cough up some change.

This is… actually quite clever. Microsoft’s problem has never been getting a few people people hooked — it’s getting them to play in the first place. With a freemium model, the user base should spike straight up. And for every player that sticks around and invests in a triple monitor set-up with dedicated cockpit controls, they’ll have a mountain of DLC awaiting. The first hit is free, as they say.

We’ll have to see just how well the game gets embraced by Flight Simulator’s current fan base, though — so far, most of the audiences comments seem to be harping on it as little more than a minor upgrade or bashing its graphics engine. But hey — it’s (sorta) free!



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